Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 79696.639827 84137.943675 88580.332327 93354.095251 98335.658965 103377.576639 108863.145011
2026-01-18 72260.865919 79017.343768 85965.297929 93634.606233 101853.075954 110386.069027 119905.667240
2026-01-25 66933.589239 75266.090115 84024.360484 93896.893006 104695.796537 116129.038606 129128.923864
2026-02-01 62572.418152 72046.717626 82190.509085 93826.971631 106773.570585 120702.220067 136786.605541
2026-02-08 59526.833259 69966.601668 81324.260543 94551.187032 109482.627012 125766.696012 144818.127937
2026-02-15 56471.973295 67641.843093 79972.626700 94530.742425 111181.597342 129563.620665 151321.236322
2026-02-22 54620.473181 66541.506634 79874.401656 95808.155739 114244.403856 134816.572720 159415.389351
2026-03-01 52738.186315 65281.411926 79483.148374 96648.988550 116725.392038 139350.620799 166658.733219
2026-03-08 50521.869210 63512.252107 78395.450738 96582.373623 118072.749502 142520.856257 172292.192910
2026-03-15 48716.201433 62140.234841 77692.186701 96891.058007 119795.074953 146079.821363 178350.786208
2026-03-22 47713.003848 61675.217525 78015.296605 98374.498687 122873.338172 151209.930496 186256.239566
2026-03-29 46592.455053 61010.087679 78049.605880 99470.647002 125462.056487 155752.013547 193477.596633
2026-04-05 45290.104642 60085.835105 77746.455782 100148.545524 127557.289899 159739.744506 200102.820862
2026-04-12 43803.593695 58878.201903 77050.327716 100307.504693 128997.245052 162933.829999 205789.219015
2026-04-19 42454.550667 57792.003627 76458.320203 100553.665454 130512.474503 166201.477664 211564.580859
2026-04-26 41031.268317 56559.627443 75637.429422 100472.660788 131590.948347 168918.108081 216665.812862
2026-05-03 40087.580262 55907.152822 75513.578901 101236.815010 133697.946374 172883.520535 223300.813797
2026-05-10 38838.749399 54815.507081 74794.349667 101214.835306 134797.087303 175596.427573 228398.447681
2026-05-17 38270.065836 54592.000313 75165.708298 102565.283018 137615.198708 180439.175311 236148.292764
2026-05-24 37531.800749 54116.889624 75190.287687 103454.124258 139840.938796 184549.449779 243009.133453
2026-05-31 36421.512415 53110.046930 74493.019607 103383.702983 140824.675329 187097.559746 247924.163158
2026-06-07 35529.684752 52369.266574 74118.500981 103710.000526 142300.480047 190257.484588 253613.328133
2026-06-14 35187.168031 52360.702838 74698.244903 105277.942327 145377.686278 195451.647599 261893.811451